Ist die russische Opposition überhaupt relevant?
Von dat_9600gt_user
Ist die russische Opposition überhaupt relevant?
Von dat_9600gt_user
31 Kommentare
Traditionally? No.
If there is something good to be found in the politics of oppression, its that Putin doesnt know who exactly is his opposition and how many people would support it. He is long time paranoid already and that is exactly because of that. My modest prediction is that if something big happens (Putin dies, somehow the war ends with Russia being unable to justify it etc. etc) we will be yet to see these people who are completely silent now. Also, Im almost sure, one part of it is actually inside his close circles, whether they are truely against this regime or they would just switch sides out of calculations and suddenly become extremely anti Putin. (Like what happened after Stalin died, which is not the best scenario ofc.)
The better question (for the future of many countries) is:
Is opposition in autocracies even relevant?
For example, the other day there was somewhat in-depth polling on support for the Iranian regime, where even the most pro-regime demographic hovered at around 30%, with most other demographics significantly below it, for a total closer to around 20%
Yet, this tiny fraction of the population is, with the aid of the state, more than capable of holding the entire populace hostage for decades despite periodic violent protests.
Similar dynamics can be observed in Turkey and Serbia, where support for the government has cratered, yet the government’s grip on power with help of its dwindling support base has only increased.
The truth is that there are no fairy tale endings where the majority rise up and (semi-)peacefully depose the autocrat merely by verbally expressing their desire. Without the backing of actors -domestic and foreign- powerful enough to bring the autocrat to their knees, the 70-80% of the population opposing them can merely impotently watch as they are ignored at best and brutalized at worst. Even the mere 20-30% support the autocrat has are enough to serve as the prison guards of the entire country.
There is, of course, the recent apparent counter-example of Nepal, but it seems too recent to have a proper insight into the internal dynamics yet, and in any case would be one of the exceptions proving the rule.
The only difference between russian government and the opposition is that the opposition is against corruption, they want wage wars and commit genocides effectively
The only difference between russian government and the opposition is that the opposition is against corruption, they want wage wars and commit genocides effectively
Opposition, by definition, is meant to oppose. I don’t see a lot of opposing. Some complaining, some disagreeing, but very little actual opposing
No. Also, they don’t so much oppose Putin’s actions as the fact that it’s him ruling when it could be them.
Real Russian opposition is already dead.
And not Navalny who participated in ‚brown‘ movements in Russia in early 2000s, then was imperialist who was more or less okay with what Russia does, except government corruption.
So far only those who smoke carelessly are
They always matter. Autocracies aren’t like democracies where the society bend all the time one way or another and the next year it bends another way based on the situations and moods of its people but almost never break.
Autocracies on the other hand always feel rock solid and unshakable until they suddenly and rapidly snap and crumble.
So no any Russian opposition right now seems to be suppressed to all hell and can’t challenge Putin in any way. But no autocratic regime lasts for ever and keeping alive that Russians are not all fevered Putin supporters, that does matter for Russia future.
I think the article is very far-fetched.
There is discontent with Putin in Russia – there is a lot of corruption and there is no fair trial, which is very annoying to the population, and that’s why almost every day in Russia, they choose a symbolic victim – an official who is involved in corruption worth hundreds of millions of euros, who will go to prison or jump out of a window.
This happens every day.
It’s a misconception in Europe that the kind of politician we’re used to electing in Germany or the Netherlands will immediately appear.
No, there needs to be some evolution.
The mistake of the past was that Europe and the United States did not support local municipal politicy , focusing only on supporting first-tier politicians.
Russia needs the experience of post-war Germany, where long-term efforts have yielded good results.
No – in order to be relevant they would need to be in Russia and that = prison or death
the russian opposition is sabotaging infrastructure inside russia with the goal being to make the war untenable. so, yes, they are relevant. they’re just small.
Stasi types don’t talk they just grass on you even if they’re your family /best friends
Political circus with parties and elections has little to no effect on Russian politics, so the article barely scratches the surface of the topic. The real discussions happen in Politburo 2.0 where you can find vastly different points of view, e.g. Gref, Kudrin or Nabiullina. There are war hawks, progressivists and until some point even Western-oriented politicians. Of course there are a few that represent old-school soviet governance.
Is „the Russian opposition“ even relevant? No.
Is there opposing view when making a certain strategic decision in Russia? I think so.
Real opposition died with Boris Nemtsov when he was murdered (read; assassinated by Putin) near the Kremlin in 2015.
There is no true opposition in Russia
The one that sits in Europe — no, unless they donate to AFU and encourage others to do the same.
Russian Volunteer Corps, Freedom of Russia Legion, Siberian Battalion, Bashkort Company, and others like them — to put it short, the ones who actually take up arms and fight alongside AFU. These are relevant in terms of deeds, but are, sadly, too few in numbers and don’t get such good PR as, say, Alexei Navalny’s widow.
The former ones (RVC) are quite dodgy folks, being de-facto closeted Nazis, but hey, sometimes it goes like „they’re sons of a bitch, but they’re *our* sons of a bitch“.
And then there are Ichkeria (Chechen) anti-pootin (and, thus, anti-kadyrovets) formations, but these are more of a separatist forces, they just want to get done with russia for good.
Edit: strictly speaking, Siberian, Bashkort and alike battalions/companies can be designated as separatists too.
No, in fact I gather it’s often bankrolled by the state to give the appearance of democratic choice
It „legitimizes” „Chosen” „government”..
Theres a lot of „” when describing a failed mob state built on lies and deception
Their opposition during navalnyi be like: „putin stealing too much“.
Not really but it remains important that there are still a few people opposing this.
No
The Russian opposition that’s fighting along side Ukraine is relevant. Other than that, no.
No they are not very relevant:
1. “Opposition” parties in duma is fucking putin puppets, just extension of United Russia at this point
2. Most of oppositioners abroad is either copium sellers or builders of sandcastles, many of them have vatnik takes (crimea as most known one), they not cooperating among themselves too much because their main goal is just siphon donations from their naive subscribers- many of them loath russians fighting for AFU too.
They try to oversell their popularity and paint to westerners yearning for good russians that they majority in russia. Unfortunately some buying that fairytale. There is no people who could be as popular as Navalny (who was far from angel too, even before getting shot at power, also even if he was alive- his base was toothless to even attempt usurp power)
So even imagine that putin croak and for some batshit insane reason there will be fair elections, “oppositioners” with their diet vatnik rhetorics (adjusted for their content consumers) lose to more established in face of vatniks politicans ( guys from putin inner circle) with og vatnik rhetorics
3. fracture of 2. Actually nice guys, unfortunately even less releant
4. Russians fighting for AFU, the one doing real job though quite limited, if west supported ukraine properly could be real power, as we see rn – they aren’t, so not relevant
Of course not. Usually it’s another KGB (sometimes referred as „FSB“) outlet for showing the world that „we have democracy“. Don’t let them deceive you.
Russian opposition often is like Zhirinovsky, Girkin or Prigozhyn, They criticize current government for being too soft.
I don’t remember there ever being any opposition in Russia at all! For example, the last opposition leader, Navalny, fully supported Putin’s wars of aggression, calling Georgians “rodents” and Ukrainians “khokhly.” The only thing that concerned him was that corruption in the Russian army would result in fewer missiles being produced and those that were produced would be of poorer quality.
But in my opinion, corruption in the Russian Federation saved Europe from being captured and plundered by the Russians! In fact, many years from now, Europe will erect monuments to the nameless Russian general who so effectively plundered the Russian army that it was unable to capture all of Europe!
Arguably, right opposition is more influential. A lot of people want a harsher stance on Ukraine affairs etc. Strelkov is in prison nowadays because of his popular support.
No it isn’t and most of them don’t seem much better than Putin & Co.
The only real russian opposition currently fights alongside Ukrainian army on the frontline.