Doug Fords Tories steigen zu einem Rekord in der Umfrage, als Marit Stiles ‚NDP -Kämpfe
https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/doug-fords-tories-soar-to-a-record-high-in-poll-as-marit-stiles-ndp-struggles/article_e6f074c3-9086-47f6-8cc0-f93df6c5970c.html
8 Kommentare
Yeah, I’m definitely gonna vote against Marit at the convention. Part of it is the fault of the media sure, but a party that outfundraises liberals, won more seats, a leader that toured the province this summer to rally against Doug Ford’s bill 5 struggling to gain any traction is honestly insane. There needs to be a purge done at this point.
Before anyone says, „BUT NDP ABANDONED WORKING CLASS“, NDP’s been meeting with unions all the time this summer, organizing against bill 5, but the only big media traction we got was what? A constituency assistant accidentally sending out the wrong release. I hate the way media works in this country, and also the way our party has been so ineffective. I know some of the reasons why, but can’t divulge them for reasons of keeping my anonymity.
It was over as soon as she sided with Doug Ford in support of the Israeli genocide against her own party member (Sara Jama) in the NDP heartland of Hamilton.
In my opinion, the only thing that could shake up Ontario politics is a party to the right of the Ontario PC’s. Surprising that it hasn’t happened yet when a common view held amongst right wingers is that Ford isn’t a real conservative.
Doug Ford has managed to walk a fine line between between the tough strong „Captain Canada“ guy people want during the great American relationship shift and not coming across like a dictator. Granted there some major criticisms of Ford and some people absolutely detest him but he’s managed to walk the middle very well.
I will never understand this province everything that is wrong can be linked to Ford. I don’t see that current options changing until a conservative federal government takes the blame and Ontario votes Liberal against and we are stuck in this forever loop of neoliberalism and deteriorating public service and further privatization of public services to the point we get out own trump.
Any candidate that doesn’t know how to effectively mobilize social media to their favour is in for a difficult ride these days.
Before Ford got the leadership, people were ready to back Patrick Brown to the ends of the earth. He presented himself with a „2014 John Tory-like“ vibe, sure, but also, he benefited from multiple social media campaigns that did the dirty work – Ontario Proud, Canada Proud, etc. Those were HUGE and they benefited from a RW-friendly algorithm that promoted their messages to the point that „gas plants“ was just shorthand for general distaste of the Liberals. Most people couldn’t even tell you what their actual grief was with the Liberals and the gas plants, and if they could articulate it, it was missing about 75% of the relevant facts. It’s hard to create a narrative all by yourself – you need a sympathetic social media movement, and it’s absolutely not hard to find those that are friendly to the conservatives in Canada. It’s a lot harder for more left-wing groups.
We nearly had that moment in 2023 with Stiles and the NDP and the Greenbelt. I like Marit Stiles and I think she would be effective at governance, but she isn’t really the most inspiring leader. But with all the stuff coming out on the Greenbelt over the summer and early fall of 2023, she had the entire party on point and on message. It was the most disciplined we’d seen the entire party in a generation. She was (finally) getting favourable media coverage, was controlling the narrative, had the conservatives running from press conferences and everything. It looked like she was getting her „gas plants“ moment. The whole thing fell apart when Sarah Jama grabbed the microphone and started talking about Israel and Gaza. Whether she was correct at the time or not is beside the point – it completely redirected all media attention from the Greenbelt, which Stiles had worked so hard to garner, and now the NDP was being faced with very public accusations of antisemitism, which are a lot spicier than the Greenbelt piece. They never regained their momentum from that. Jama’s political instincts did a lot of damage to the NDP’s opposition.
The NDP faces significant double-standards when it comes to the way political parties are treated in this province. The conservatives have been able to get away with a TON that did sink the Liberals and would get the NDP laughed out of contention for another generation. They absolutely don’t deserve the benefit of the doubt, and yet here we are. But you can complain about the double-standards, or you can fight, and we’ve seen that Stiles, competent in (hypothetical) governance that she may be, just doesn’t have the juice to seize the energy and the room a second time.
Unless another leader can come in and rock the landscape, Ontario is going to experience some generational changes and generational damage under Ford. For many people, by the time they experience the negative impacts of his decision-making and aggressive incompetence, it will be too late.
I don’t get how the hell he keeps doing it. The province is in much worse shape on every metric than it was in 2018.
I’m fairly confident that Ford will comfortably win re-election in 2029, but these numbers are too high. I’m not sure what’s happened to Abacus, but their numbers seem to be diverging from the general public. To get in the high 40s is difficult enough due to polarization, let alone the 50s.
Ford currently has no opposition, and it seems likely that will continue into the next election with Crombie clinging on, and Stiles stalled out. But a Tim Houston style landslide is not possible in a province like Ontario, so he’ll probably get a result similar to 2025.