Wahlprognostiker sagt, Poilievre werde vor der frühen Abstimmung leicht die Durchwahl gewinnen
https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-forecaster-says-poilievre-will-easily-win-byelection-ahead-of-early-voting
Wahlprognostiker sagt, Poilievre werde vor der frühen Abstimmung leicht die Durchwahl gewinnen
https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-forecaster-says-poilievre-will-easily-win-byelection-ahead-of-early-voting
15 Kommentare
This is the easy answer, and I 100% agree with the prediction.
However, it should be noted that 338Canada also had Poilievre winning Carleton.
Again, I have no doubt that he will win this one, but these projections aren’t always 100% accurate.
Only question will he does he win by more than Kurek did.
I don’t think he will but it will be a close one in that facet.
The landslide might be a few points less, but it will still be a landslide.
And with Carney eating his lunch on some of the things he claimed he’d do, he is only going to go more far right to differentiate himself.
He’ll also gather more support from the disenfranchised youth in this country that are being absolutely destroyed in every facet of their lives.
The fall sitting of Parliament is going to be an absolute circus that will make the political discourse of Trudeau’s time look tame.
He is running in the safest Conservative riding in Canada, in a place that would elect a potted plant before even thinking of electing a Liberal or NDP candidate. The only way he will lose is if he drops dead before the election, and even then people would still vote for his cadaver over an actual living breathing non-CPC candidate.
Right, but if he wins with only 55% of the vote or something like that, it’s a weak showing going into a leadership review…
What an upset, nobody could have ever predicted that parachuting the Conservative Leader into literally the safest Conservative seat in the country -one whose constituents have been reported on many occasions to threaten the candidates from other parties- would win this byelection by a landslide.
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The result isn’t up for debate here, but I don’t think you can really project the margins when we’ve never had an election only with write in ballots. I’d think they would favour Poilievre because he has the most name recognition, so he’ll probably get his 80% or whatever.
People don’t understand the difference in resources between what candidates have here. Poilievre has at least 10x the volunteers of every other candidate in the race *combined*. His team knows they need a really high result here so they are throwing everything they’ve got at this. They have most MPs, MLAs, and all their staff out helping with this race.
It’s nice to see PP on track to win his participation trophy seat. Im sure are the maple MAGA and right wing pundits are salivating over his sound bites and “verb the noun” slogans when he’s back at QP.
But seriously, it’s nice to see someone who is unemployed and living in government assisted housing rise up to become the leader of the opposition in the HOC.
It’s a by-election. Turnout is often a problem. People are on summer holidays. I think he will win. Looking forward to the house sitting this Fall and some sort of financial accounting of our country’s books.
just shows how short sight people are in so many ways, and in Alberta, the truth of how much a failure PP is and vote for someone who is qualfied to work in politics such as the Bonnie lady
Elections rules need to change to prevent this kind of stuff. You should reside in the riding you represent. Why? Pierre won’t be back until next election
Of course he’s going to win. Independent candidates are surefire losers unless they have exceptionally high profile/name recognition. Plus Poilievre is popular in this part of the country, its not like he’s a red tory.
If it was a low-profile by election, maybe you could rely on 10% turnout and really motivated people taking over, but not this one. Pierre is going to win by at least a 30% margin.
My hope is his win is weaker that the 81% Kurek got so he loses the leadership convention and sparks another CPC civil war while he’s stuck in Parliament with the CPC arguing over him..and he loses Stornaway and has to choose 1 out of his at least 4 properties in Ottawa to move into
He might still be in trouble if he doesn’t blow the doors off. He still has to pass a leadership review and if he runs behind the average in the seat by a significant amount that is going to make things worse for him on the margins.