S. Korea verfolgt eine hohe Wachstumsrate von 14 Jahren im Mai, da die Geburten weiterhin 11 Monate lang steigen

>Meanwhile, the number of deaths in May remained nearly unchanged from a year earlier at 28,510, resulting in a natural population decline of 8,202.

I think this is the most important part of the article..

Some points of concern and optimism at the same time: The trend is actually continuing for the past 12 months since all but one month was positive growth over the past year. What I worry is the monthly births seem to be stabilizing between 20K~21K which equates to a TFR around 0.77~0.8. What’s also concerning is that the rate of women having their second and third child is decreasing (but this may be because the marriage rate was on a continuous downspiral prior to 2024).

– However, I’m still optimistic because the marriage rate is improving 14 months straight, and because the birth : marriage ratio is spiking up (https://x.com/tyqwer16/status/1941041584491131162), meaning we can assume every marriage to at least one birth. It takes on average 1.5 years for a newly wed couple to have their first child so if the ratio keeps increasing, we should start to see a significant improvement in the birth threshold within 6 months from now and therefore the TFR. If it does not dramatically improve (recovering 23~25K births per month in 2026), we have a major problem to report to Houston.

– One of the major reasons why births are increasing is cause you have more women in their early 30s than 5-10 years prior. HOWEVER, based on the demographic projections alone, the statistics bureau was expecting a TFR of 0.68~0.7 in 2024 and 0.65 in 2025(https://www.yna.co.kr/view/GYH20231214001400044). The actual TFR in 2024 was 0.75 and ~0.80 in 2025 so far. So the growing population of women aging 30~35 cannot be the main driver of Korea’s rising birth rates.

– Academia is starting to suspect the following reasons:

1. Growing number of women in 30~35
2. A change in narrative and attitude towards marriage and having a baby on social media platforms, driving younger people to want to marry (corroborated by government studies showing a sudden increase in the number of women in their 20s indicating they want to marry +11% YOY)
3. Government policies:
1. 신혼부부 전용 주택구입자금 대출 which lends up to 400,000$ (not currency adjusted) over an amortization period of 10~30 years with sub-basal interest rates (2.35~3.65%) for newly wed couples.
2. Improved parental leave policies for children under 18 months old and increased subsidies for parents with children under 2yo. If a parent decides to take leave, they can receive up to 2500$/month from the parental leave policy + 1500$ monthly government subsidy for a child under 1 and 1000$ for a child under 2. This is on top of local subsidies. Incheon, for example provides up to 100,000$ over the course of 18 years a child is raised in the city.
3. Local governments are steadily increasing all-inclusive after-school child care programs. So not just supervision after school, but FREE English, math, and activity classes like Taekwondo, swimming etc. So both parents can continue their careers

You can do it South Korea!

It’s already too late at this point, even a 2x above replenishment rate would not be enough because there will be a huge age gap. 

Concerning. First there weren’t enough fucking Japanese. Now there’s not enough fucking Koreans.

Soon, there won’t be enough fucking people at all.

Oh they fukin

OH THEY FOOKIN