Konservative verwenden Grimsby Home Invasion als Beweis für eine nationale Kriminalitätswelle – die Daten unterstützen sie nicht auf
https://thepointer.com/article/2025-04-25/conservatives-use-grimsby-home-invasion-as-evidence-of-a-national-crime-wave-the-data-doesn-t-back-it-up
4 Kommentare
If you look at the [actual data](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3510002601&pickMembers%5B0%5D=1.1&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2000&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2023&referencePeriods=20000101%2C20230101) there is a bit of cherrypicking here going on IMO.
First off the data goes up to 2023 and a lot can change in two years. Additionally if you look at the „violent crime severity index“ instead of the „crime severity index“ we are at the same as we were in 2006. It’s also going in the wrong direction, increasing by about 30% in the last ~10 years.
Add to that the change since then (in my experience anyway) that the cops can’t be bothered to even take a report half the time and I don’t 100% trust the stats.
The author does reference an „asterix“ in the data in that it started to include more things 10 years ago, but the way the index works is that incidences are weighted by severity so I am skeptical that it would account for such a drastic change.
Conservatives have never run up against a problem they couldn’t lie about to build on their bullshit narrative,
Genuine understanding and real solutions are too woke apparently.
Conservatives will kick and scream about crime waves and mandatory minimums and jail reform and never talk about jail capacity or funding the courts and jails which are the root cause of most of what they complain about
So, per the chart included in the article included as „evidence“ we went from just under 700 violent crimes per 100,000 in 2019 to nearly 1,000 violent crimes per 100,000 in 2023 (a 43% increase) and the conclusion from the criminal lawyer here is what? We’re on a positive trend?
Seems kind of crazy, but makes sense to the author if they can cherry pick a couple year-over-year variances. Maybe it’s just me and my lingering respect for basic statistics, but I don’t really buy the thrust of this article at all.