Bundesauswahl für den 18. August in Albertas Battle River -Crowfoot Riding
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/byelection-called-battle-river-crowfoot-1.7573605
Bundesauswahl für den 18. August in Albertas Battle River -Crowfoot Riding
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/byelection-called-battle-river-crowfoot-1.7573605
3 Kommentare
There is no world where this by-election won’t have a surprise whether that be now, or later. A few that could happen:
1) This is one of the most CPC ridings in the country. It has only 1 year where it voted CPC **below** the margin of 80% since its inception. That year was in 2021 (71.3%) because of a PPC candidate getting 10% of the vote. Any margin below 70% in this riding for Poilievre should be sending signals to the CPC that Poilievre is not very electable.
2) Perhaps the reason why I said the surprises could be „later“ is that there is significant speculation that Battle River-Crowfoot would vote to secede from Canada in a possible Albertan Independence Vote which seems more likely to be an inevitability. If the Leader of a major federal party’s riding votes to separate from Canada – at what point is that considered detrimental to the Leader?
3) Say Poilievre wins this by-election and is later ousted in January because the CPC hasn’t rebounded in polling and his net-favourability is still in the negatives — what then? Does he resign and trigger **another** by-election less than a year later?
Obviously, none of this could happen and Poilievre could safely cruise to victory with 80% or more of the vote and Alberta secession quiets down and the CPC membership votes to keep Poilievre — but that’s a lot of variables to worry about and a lot of things that have to go right.
I understand the desire to appear magnanimous in victory, as if Carney were being indulgent or something, but he’s just given the entirety of the slowest news period to his main political rival, and also given Poilievre a full month to hype his return to the House, where he performs very well.
We have also just seen how the Carney ministry definitely isn’t committed to procedural fairness (bill C-2 is a power grab, they shoved C-5 through despite substantive objections to real flaws).
So why give Poilievre the space? Don’t call the byelection and just don’t say anything, stall the media and let the Conservatives whine all summer. It’d just reinforce their loser status. Call the election mid-August and make Poilievre step in awkwardly in Sheer’s place two weeks into the fall sitting: “Glad you could make it finally, we’ll give you some time to catch up.” Instead he gets a fresh start in the fall. Bah.
Time for the people of Alberta to show what they think of Ontarians coming to their province and taking their jobs.