Status des wiederverwendbaren Raketenprogramms Chinas

Some thoughts on the upcoming chinese F9 clones and reusable rockets.

* TL-3: Probably most direct F9 clone on this list, Kerolox, 9 engines, similar payload. Nothing interesting. The only notable thing is that they are the most likely to land first, considering their proposed launch rate and the fact that they are aggressively pushing for a landing on their 1st or 2nd launch, as compared to the other companies that aren’t even trying until they have a handful of launches under their belt. Very small chance of landing in 2025, every other rocket on this list will land in 2026/2027 guaranteed.

* ZQ-3- The most interesting rocket here. Stainless steel and methalox. There’s a whole bunch of questions as to why they went for stainless steel despite the increased weight? Did they do it because it will help with reuse, cut down on any potential damage and reimbursement time? Maybe they don’t have to fire their engines to slow their 1st stage down if the stainless steel can tank the heat. But the existing aluminum alloy don’t seem to be an issue with the F9. Maybe they just want more experience with stainless steel since they are one the few companies that are also keen on developing a Starship clone, and the ZQ-3 is just stopgap design before they rush into developing their Starship clone using the experience that they have learned with the ZQ-3.

* Kinetica-2: Payload is not very impressive given it’s tripe core design. Only notable thing is that they are planning to land the entire triple core 1st stage together as one unit. I feel like it’s gonna take them a lot of tries before they can succeed with such a novel landing design. Not very impressed with this rocket, to me it looks like they opted for a triple core rocket because they can’t produce a powerful enough rocket without the triple core design and they are trying to land the entire rocket as a single unit because they aren’t confident with landing 3 separate boosters at the same time.

* Pallas 1: At only 8 tons to LEO, it’s the 2nd least powerful rocket on this list. Another pretty similar F9 clone, with 7 engines instead of 9. Will need to pivot into their triple core FH design fast if they want to snag mega-constellation launches; with their low payload.

* Hyperbola-3: Other than using methalox, not much to say, another very similar F9 clone. Middle of the road payload. Not very impressive.

* Nebula 1-2: The Nebula 1 only has 2 tons payload to LEO, not nearly enough for mega-constellation deployments. Realizing this mistake; the company is also developing the the Nebula 2 alongside it, with a 5 meter diameter, it will take 25 tons to LEO, giving it one of the largest launch capacity on this list. Deep blue aerospace is also reported to be looking into developing a catching system for their 1st stage instead of using landing legs.

* Yuanxingzhe-1: Another methalox, also stainless steel. The interesting thing is that they’re just gonna land the rocket onto the water and tug it back for reuse. That’s the long term plan, no landing legs. The rocket will have valves and seals that will prevent seawater from flooding the delicate inner workings of the engines and pipes. I’m skeptical, seems like they’re just rushing a band-aid solution to race ahead of the other companies instead of spending the time to develop landing legs. If they survive long term, they will probably just develop landing legs eventually, or a rocket catching system.

* CZ-12R: Might be one of the first Long March rockets to be reusable. Nothing notable other than that fact. Again, middle of the road payload compared to the F9 and some of the other rockets in this list.

* Gravity 2: Only notable thing is that they’re offering optional SRBs add-ons for their rocket for higher mass payloads or high energy orbits. I don’t think those SRBs will be used much considering the market. Pretty decent payload.

* CZ-10- China’s next human rated rocket for their lunar missions. Uses a tether catch system. Comes in single core vs triple core variants. It’s weird how the single stick version has a such a small payload, you would think that it would exceed or at least match the F9, since the tripe core version has a higher payload to LEO than the FH and it having a 5 meter diameter vs F9’s 3.7 meter, staged combustion engines compared to the Faclon’s gas generator cycle and having 3 stages, with the final stage being hydrolox. Also not needing landing legs due to the tether catch system. Really not sure why it’s only slightly more powerful than the FH despite all those advantages, with the single core version having a lot less payload than the F9. Really shows why China lagged behind in rocket technology for the last 2 decades if their premier rocket SOE is this bad, there’s multiple private Chinese company’s F9 clone that exceed the LM-10A performance, despite not having a 5 diameter core, or companies like Deep blue aerospace, whose’s 5 diameter core rocket is supposed to take 25 tons to LEO, which matches what I would expect out of a 5 meter rocket.

* CALT’s 5 meter RLV: 5 meter diameter core, uses methalox. Basically the LM-10A but methalox Very little details of it so far.. Not really sure of the final payload, but if the figure of 15 tons to LEO is true, again begs the question of why it’s so under-powered when you consider it’s 5 meter core vs the F9’s 3.7 meters.

* Xuanniao-1- Stainless steel, methalox. Also they plan to use wings on the 1st stage to glide the rocket back for recovery, alongside using a rocket catching system. If successful, they don’t need to do any deceleration burns other than the final landing burn for recovery. As one of the newest company on this list, it seems like they are just using lots of buzzwords to get funding, I guess that you really need to stand out if you want to survive in the chinese launch market when you’re new. I’m skeptical that all their promises will come to pass. As it is, they are unlikely to survive long, unless their system really does work as advertised and they will need to move fast if they want any hope of surviving.

* Yueqian- Another stainless steel and methalox combo. Also chopstick catching method. Again, they are a very new company, unlikely to survive very long unless they are exceptional and can develop their rockets at record speed.