Ein Waffenstillstand ohne Schlussfolgerung

Arash Azizi: “The U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear sites this past weekend don’t seem to have launched a new American forever war, as some critics feared they would. Instead, they may have helped conclude, if inconclusively, a brief hot war between Iran and Israel.

“The U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear sites this past weekend don’t seem to have launched a new American forever war, as some critics feared they would. Instead, they may have helped conclude, if inconclusively, a brief hot war between Iran and Israel.

“Iran retaliated against the United States on Monday in a manner that has become typical by now: Before targeting a U.S. base in Qatar, Tehran gave enough advance notice to assure that no one was hurt. Shortly afterward, President Donald Trump made a statement thanking Iran for the warning—and then announced a cease-fire between Iran and Israel. ‘God Bless You Both!’ Trump proclaimed on Truth Social to the two antagonists, just a day after having publicly considered pursuing regime change in Tehran.

“This was not, of course, the end of the story. Iran and Israel fired ferociously at each other in the final few hours before the cease-fire was to take hold. The timing of that cease-fire was the source of some confusion, because there had been no formal agreement between Iran and Israel, just a general understanding. Trump scolded Israel for its attacks on Iran and then complained that the two countries don’t ‘know what the fuck they’re doing.’

“Both Iran and Israel have come away with some small victories, but the big ones have eluded them. Israel once again demonstrated the jaw-dropping extent of its intelligence penetration of Iran, which allowed it to find and kill several high-ranking military leaders and nuclear scientists. But even with the American participation it long coveted, Israel failed to destroy Iran’s nuclear program fully or take away its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Hundreds of Israeli civilians were injured in Iranian attacks, many homes were destroyed, and a few dozen civilians were killed, including five who perished in an Iranian attack on Beersheba minutes before the cease-fire took effect.

“For its part, Iran’s regime proved resilient, even at the toughest hour of its history. Fantasies about the strikes igniting a popular uprising that would overthrow the regime proved empty. But the Islamic Republic was badly battered and humiliated. It lost control of its airspace, such that even its diplomats could travel only with permission from Israel. And the war’s shock to the Iranian system could still help spell doom for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.”

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