Artikel: Wie berechnen Wissenschaftler die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass ein Asteroid die Erde treffen könnte?
https://theconversation.com/how-do-scientists-calculate-the-probability-that-an-asteroid-could-hit-earth-249834
Artikel: Wie berechnen Wissenschaftler die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass ein Asteroid die Erde treffen könnte?
https://theconversation.com/how-do-scientists-calculate-the-probability-that-an-asteroid-could-hit-earth-249834
3 Kommentare
Might not have the details 100% correct, but basically, I believe that they roll a couple of dice and come up with a number that makes a frightening tabloid headline.
The uncertainty in the trajectory generates the probabilities.
For a single asteroid it is difficult to project it’s orbital dynamics far into the future, on the order of years or decades, especially since an asteroid will weakly interact with other objects in that time. Part of the difficulty is that asteroids headed in our general direction (towards Earth) are often viewed (almost) head on as they approach us. Here’s a pretty OK video about [Jupiter’s Comet Shield](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zu41rrc_Ng) (not mine) where probability is discussed though it is not the primary subject.