Analyse: Schlägen auf den Iran Russlands Ambitionen zurück oder können Putin sie zu seinem Vorteil spielen?
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-us-strikes-iran-nuclear/33451450.html
Analyse: Schlägen auf den Iran Russlands Ambitionen zurück oder können Putin sie zu seinem Vorteil spielen?
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-us-strikes-iran-nuclear/33451450.html
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Analysis on how the recent U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities have impacted Russia’s position in the Middle East. While the attacks targeted a key Russian partner, they also opened a window for Moscow to assert itself diplomatically. Iran quickly turned to Russia for support, with Foreign Minister Araqchi traveling to Moscow for talks. However, despite condemning the strikes, Russia made clear it would not provide military assistance. We also examine whether Russia can maintain influence in the region or if its inability to prevent the escalation exposes its limitations.
Iran closes the strait->oil price goes up->Russian export goes up which is good for Russian economy.
Russia was relying on Iranian weapons for their efforts in Ukraine I think this angle deserves examination.
Attention, focus, and materiel aimed at the middle east certainly doesn’t hurt Putin’s goals in Ukraine. Russia is domestically producing the munitions Iran was sending and they are still sourcing western components for guidance and control. It probably won’t materially alter the situation on the ground, but it will have unforseen knock on effects down the line.
The bigger issue, I think, is energy and oil instability with the closure of Hormuz. That only helps Russia, and in a big way. If prices skyrocket and/or stay high for too long, more and more countries (China, india, the stans) will flagrantly ignore price caps to protect their economies and maybe make a profit on the secondary market.
Long term though Saudi Arabia is not going to take kindly to their oil being cut off, and Iran isn’t going to have a great time if their main geopolitical rival decides to go hands on in a larger coalition. In the aftermath Russia might be in a decidedly weaker position without the ability to influence the region.
So short term it might help Putin, but long term its shaping up to be a catastrophe for Putins aims of reigniting the Soviet legacy