Trumps Zölle: Lehren aus der Geschichte und Szenarien und wahrscheinlichen Ergebnissen ignorieren

In a column at the Centre for European Policy Research site, [Michael Bordo](https://www.hoover.org/profiles/michael-d-bordo) and [Mickey Levy](https://www.hoover.org/profiles/mickey-d-levy) marshal historical economic data to argue that “tariffs harm economic performance.” The authors suggest the most likely scenario for American tariff policy would see import duties of “12-14% [on] average (roughly $140 billion or 1.4% of GDP), including negotiated lower tariffs for Canada and Mexico.” While Levy and Bordo think this “less-worse case” scenario could induce a “marked economic slowdown or mild recession,” they anticipate that the long-term impact on US growth would be relatively small. A larger challenge they raise is that “soothing relationships with allies and achieving diplomatic normalcy may take years of good US behavior, and is unlikely during the Trump administration.” Nevertheless, the authors conclude with a reminder of “the exceptional capabilities and potential of the US’s private sector and economy.”