Wie eine multipolare Weltwirtschaft tatsächlich aussehen wird

SS: As global power shifts continue, more countries are stepping up to challenge the long-standing US-led world order, calling instead for a “multipolar world.”

> Note: The host of the channel is Dr. Joeri Schasfoort of University of Groningen in the Netherlands, whose interests and PhD center around bottom-up agent-based modelling of macroeconomic systems.

However, a multipolar world means different things to its supporters and below are the 3 major visions discussed in the video:

1. The Russian Vision (40% likelihood) which divides the world into hard-edged spheres of influence. Regional powers act unilaterally, sanctions and economic warfare increase, and proxy conflicts become the norm. Multilateral institutions lose relevance, and trust among nations erodes. It resembles the global atmosphere of the 1930s, order on paper, but riddled with instability.
2. The Brazilian Vision (5% likelihood) This vision calls for a cooperative multipolar world with inclusive institutions and shared decision-making. It imagines a fairer and more pluralistic system. Still, it’s seen as the least likely, since many rising powers want influence over integration.
3. Cold War 2.0 Vision (55% likelihood) is the most probable outcome is a renewed bipolar order dominated by the US and China instead of Russia this time around. Instead of ideology, the split would be economic: competing tech ecosystems, trade networks, and digital standards. While less chaotic than the Russian vision, it still includes reduced globalization and increased strategic rivalry.

The video also notes that mid-level powers often act more aggressively than major ones, punishing or pressuring trade partners. That’s because major powers do not need to show off their power to recieve respect from other countries, other countries know their strength and act accordingly. Medium-powers are the ones who will constantly have to fight to prove themselves in a multipolar world.

As for EU, it could act as a counterbalance to reinforce democratic norms and promoting economic collaboration, essentially being the backbone to the Brazilian vision. But if global powers like the US and China continue to use trade as a weapon, the system may slide further into division.