Ehen in China im ersten Quartal um 8% inmitten des demografischen, Wahrnehmungsänderungen

# Submission statement:

China’s Q1 2025 marriages fell another 8% after 2024’s 20.5% plunge, pushing births to just 7.3–7.8 million – a sharp warning, since 95% of births still depend on marriage.

UN models still assume TFR will rebound from today’s 1.02 to 1.35 by 2100, but these forecasts have been repeatedly revised down and rest on shaky convergence assumptions.

China’s working-age population is shrinking nearly twice as fast as Japan’s did at its peak, but at just one-third of Japan’s per capita income – and by 2040, China’s median age will hit ~49, older than any country on Earth today.

Urbanization past 80% and fertility patterns matching South Korea (0.72) and Hong Kong (0.77) suggest that even major policy moves won’t reverse the slide.

This is no gradual adjustment; it’s a deep, accelerating demographic shock that threatens to reshape China’s long-term economic and geopolitical weight far more sharply than most forecasts admit.