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2 Comments
Submission Statement: Journalist Aliide Naylor examines Europe’s failure to stand up to Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2014, arguing that the EU’s timid response to Russia annexing Crimea and instigating separatism in eastern Ukraine cleared the way for Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Naylor discusses how European leaders were too deferential to Russian concerns at the time in an attempt to not provoke Moscow, failed to see the conflict as a serious security threat, and were reluctant to impose tough sanctions due to economic ties with Russia. As a result, Europe missed an opportunity to deter further Russian violence against Ukraine and sends a warning that the EU must do better to counter Russian actions going forward.
Even in Feb 23 2022, when Russian army was arrayed against Ukraine, most western analysts kept saying Putin was bluffing. that he would never dare to Invade Ukraine. So, I think its very hard for Europeans to predict that Russia would invade all of Ukraine in 2014 when it seemed Putin was mainly trying to foment chaos and keep Ukraine from joining nato.
The geopolitical situation of 2014 was much different than 2022. Europe was relatively much richer than rest of the world and also had more confidence about its own power. Europe was also dealing with effect 2008 economic crisis and Euro debt crisis. Expecting them to severely sanction Russia while also being dependent on Russian gas seems like an extreme move no politician could justify at that time.
Its easy to say in hindsight Europe should have done X and Y. But people in power at that time had different considerations.