Die weltweiten Waldbrände im Jahr 2023 setzten 8,6 Milliarden Tonnen Kohlendioxid frei, 16 % mehr als der Durchschnitt. Der Klimawandel hat die Häufigkeit extremer Waldbrände in Kanada bereits um das 3,3-fache und im Amazonasgebiet um das 24-fache erhöht. Die derzeitige Emissionsentwicklung könnte solche Extremereignisse bis 2100 um das 6- bis 10-fache wahrscheinlicher machen.
https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/16/3601/2024/
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Abstract
“Climate change contributes to the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society and the environment. However, our understanding of the global distribution of extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage and regionalised research efforts. This inaugural State of Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying extreme events from the March 2023–February 2024 fire season. We assess the causes, predictability, and attribution of these events to climate change and land use and forecast future risks under different climate scenarios. During the 2023–2024 fire season, 3.9×106 km2 burned globally, slightly below the average of previous seasons, but fire carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totalling 2.4 Pg C. Global fire C emissions were increased by record emissions in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times the average) and reduced by low emissions from African savannahs. Notable events included record-breaking fire extent and emissions in Canada, the largest recorded wildfire in the European Union (Greece), drought-driven fires in western Amazonia and northern parts of South America, and deadly fires in Hawaii (100 deaths) and Chile (131 deaths). Over 232 000 people were evacuated in Canada alone, highlighting the severity of human impact. Our analyses revealed that multiple drivers were needed to cause areas of extreme fire activity. In Canada and Greece, a combination of high fire weather and an abundance of dry fuels increased the probability of fires, whereas burned area anomalies were weaker in regions with lower fuel loads and higher direct suppression, particularly in Canada. Fire weather prediction in Canada showed a mild anomalous signal 1 to 2 months in advance, whereas events in Greece and Amazonia had shorter predictability horizons. Attribution analyses indicated that modelled anomalies in burned area were up to 40 %, 18 %, and 50 % higher due to climate change in Canada, Greece, and western Amazonia during the 2023–2024 fire season, respectively. Meanwhile, the probability of extreme fire seasons of these magnitudes has increased significantly due to anthropogenic climate change, with a 2.9–3.6-fold increase in likelihood of high fire weather in Canada and a 20.0–28.5-fold increase in Amazonia. By the end of the century, events of similar magnitude to 2023 in Canada are projected to occur 6.3–10.8 times more frequently under a medium–high emission scenario (SSP370). This report represents our first annual effort to catalogue extreme wildfire events, explain their occurrence, and predict future risks. By consolidating state-of-the-art wildfire science and delivering key insights relevant to policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, and land managers, we aim to enhance society’s resilience to wildfires and promote advances in preparedness, mitigation, and adaptation.”
I live in Canada and towns outside of my city are being completely levelled by 400 ft high walls of fire moving at about 10 km/h. My regular day is waking up and looking out to see nothing but smoke as far as the eye can see for weeks on end. Days shrouded in amber hues makes it feel very post-apocalyptic. We don’t open our windows because of poor air quality and sometimes it rains ash. Im an avid hiker in the rockies and it’s very disheartening to see a once vibrant trail I hiked the previous season completely burnt out. Most of them are unsafe because of deadfall and landslides.
The devastation is unending. As global temperatures rise, the conditions that lead to wildfires, such as prolonged droughts and higher temperatures, become more frequent, creating a feedback loop that intensifies both climate change and wildfire frequency. Frequent and intense wildfires can lead to the loss of critical habitats, threatening species that rely on specific forest conditions. This includes not only mammals and birds but also insects and fungi, which play vital roles in the ecosystem. Runoff from burned areas can lead to sedimentation and changes in water quality in rivers and lakes, harming aquatic life. The loss of vegetation also leads to increased water temperatures, which can be detrimental to fish populations, especially cold-water species like trout. The loss of valuable trees not only impacts local economies but also reduces the amount of carbon storage in forests.
It’s also important to mention that wildfires can disrupt traditional ways of life for Indigenous communities, including hunting, fishing, and gathering practices. The destruction of sacred sites and traditional lands also has profound cultural and spiritual consequences.
The next time some uneducated fool tries to tell you that climate change is a myth just know that it is altering fire regimes, meaning the frequency, intensity, and types of wildfires are changing. Some areas may experience more frequent and intense fires, while others may see changes in the seasonality of fires, affecting ecosystems adapted to specific fire intervals. Here we have a strange phenomenon called coal seam fires which have been burning for years and through the winter. They burn so hot that they re-emerge in the spring. Crowsnest Pass coal seam fire is a notable one that has been burning for decades.