Trumps Amateur-Unterhändler werden darum kämpfen, ihn vor der Demütigung zu bewahren

Full article: In late March and early April, the US and Iran were passing text messages back and forth through Pakistani mediators, indirect talks of a sort. Then [Donald Trump](https://inews.co.uk/topic/donald-trump?srsltid=AfmBOoq3WmCQOQd9tr7hXMLXMRGKZ6e5logifjY5fxfo6rWR6_-QnP7w&ico=in-line_link) got a call. The Iranians were playing games, he was told, going back on a “deal” the US side thought it had secured. “Tell them that’s okay, don’t worry about it,” Trump said, “but tell them to look out their window and watch.” As Trump tells the story, he gave the order to “knock out” the biggest bridge in Iran. “Ten minutes later” 2,000lb bombs hit Iran’s B1 bridge – 1,050 metres long, 137m high – and it broke in half.

Trump said the officials who called him were his Special Envoy, [Steve Witkoff](https://inews.co.uk/topic/steve-witkoff?srsltid=AfmBOopsEEVsxUnKz8s6nbWfxVs0B9w_CYFBsd0DrRd_cNh7Awbk1A_w&ico=in-line_link), his son-in-law [Jared Kushner](https://inews.co.uk/news/world/trump-kushner-shaky-peace-plan-leaves-gaza-uncertain-future-4031361?srsltid=AfmBOoq2SI-nFt8wZEyjW4yfbZpP7zbpYhQyIoelw4R2WI-tMnZbBG2P&ico=in-line_link), and his Vice President, [JD Vance](https://inews.co.uk/topic/jd-vance?srsltid=AfmBOoogHC_XDsIZgFOu5abhFpooPmeCDFRjZzNnRKSZee9tZmoDsVwF&ico=in-line_link) – the same team who will hold proximity talks with the Iranians at the Serena Hotel in Islamabad today. The two sides won’t sit in the same room. Instead, Pakistani mediators will shuttle back and forth with messages, in person now rather than relaying phone texts. The principal issue is the one that Trump says he went to war over, [Iran’s nuclear programme](https://inews.co.uk/topic/nuclear-program-of-iran?srsltid=AfmBOorcOvb4R0IiDNPxU1Vkc50l0lTji2BcHHoNdxCp3862xbjISQXT&ico=in-line_link). The gulf between the two sides is huge. The US opening position is zero uranium enrichment by Iran, ever. Iran says it has the right to do this as a sovereign nation.

Witkoff and Kushner are hawks; Vance, on the other hand, never seemed happy about the attack on Iran. He once said, in 2024, that “our interest…very much, is in not going to war with Iran”. He is perhaps most keen to get a deal. Any agreement depends on the push-and-pull between these three and, of course, Trump’s own impulsive behaviour. It depends on the Iranians, too. They have sent the foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, and the speaker of parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. He is said to be on the committee of five running Iran during the war. His presence is a sign that the Iranians are serious about getting a deal.

Witkoff has already met with the Iranians eight times. His full title is US Special Envoy to the Middle East and Special Envoy for Peace Missions. More importantly, he is [Trump’s friend of more than 40 years](https://inews.co.uk/opinion/bronx-real-estate-hustler-helped-blow-up-iran-4253560?srsltid=AfmBOoqsZJjyiYz7b3WTiHN1jsnItiSm-ZIGmV8NQycsADYzHeGOYw5n&ico=in-line_link), his golf buddy, and a fellow billionaire who came up in the world of New York real estate. He once said that he used to carry a revolver in an ankle holster to collect rents in Harlem and the Bronx. He also used to keep a copy on his desk of the book *Tough Jews* about the Jewish Mafia. He’s the kind of “killer” in business that Trump respects.

But Witkoff will face an Iranian team acknowledged as skilled negotiators, who have spent years steeped in nuclear diplomacy. Is he up to the job? There have been some [disturbing reports that Witkoff is out of his depth](https://inews.co.uk/news/world/trumps-failing-peacekeeping-envoy-incompetent-amoral-4243063?ico=in-line_link). (And not just in the Middle East. It’s said he gave Vladimir Putin territory the Russians hadn’t even asked for in negotiations over Ukraine.) Witkoff has admitted that his knowledge of the nuclear issue is “sketchy”. The journal *Arms Control Today* has published a survey of the extent of Witkoff’s ignorance on the issue he has to negotiate.

Witkoff has expressed surprise that Iran produces centrifuges – it has for decades. He called Iran’s IR-6 centrifuge “probably the most advanced centrifuge in the world” – it isn’t. He called Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan “industrial reactors” — they are enrichment facilities, not reactors. In a media appearance, he called the Strait of Hormuz “the Gulf of Hormuz”. So, in the last round of talks, at the end of February, it’s claimed that Witkoff failed to understand the Iranian negotiating position and how close both sides were to a deal. If so, the US and Iran went to war over a misunderstanding.

Another interpretation of what happened then is that Witkoff – “the killer” – thought the US was being strong-armed and wanted to demonstrate to Trump how tough he could be. His public statements are consistent with that. He has said that Iran has an “endless supply” of enriched uranium. He also said Iran was “probably a week away from having industrial-grade bomb-making material”. And he said that without US action, Iran would have “30 or 40 nuclear bombs” within a year.

Even more than Witkoff, [Jared Kushner has Trump’s ear](https://inews.co.uk/news/world/trump-kushner-shaky-peace-plan-leaves-gaza-uncertain-future-4031361?srsltid=AfmBOopJOxdRRJWhp5-Eym7c1wQ0m0MecyN5obvVlYimFHYmnIdzviyZ&ico=in-line_link). He got an official government title only in February, Special Envoy for Peace, but he’s been used for sensitive diplomatic missions since the beginning of Trump’s second term. This is despite huge conflicts of interest. A few months after leaving the White House at the end of Trump’s first term as his senior adviser, in 2020, Kushner got $2bn of Saudi money for his private equity fund. He’s had another $1.5bn from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, and the fund now reportedly stands at $6.2bn. He gets 1.25 per cent a year to manage it – $157m in fees from foreign governments so far, according to the Senate Finance Committee.

The President’s son-in-law is getting tens of millions in guaranteed fees every year from foreign autocracies in the Gulf while shaping US policy toward them. These Gulf monarchies have a major stake in the outcome of the negotiations. They are traditional rivals to Iran. The Saudi leader, Mohammed bin Salman, is said to have lobbied intensively for the US to go to war. The Gulf monarchies’ interests may be different from those of the United States in these negotiations. Who will Kushner be listening to?

[Vance has a very personal stake in the outcome of these talks](https://inews.co.uk/news/world/jd-vance-needs-deal-survive-if-he-wants-to-be-president-4343974?ico=in-line_link). He is a former Marine who served in Iraq – and then launched his political career by speaking out against the folly of “forever wars”. More than any other senior figure in the administration, he is associated with Trump’s former position of avoiding foreign entanglements. Five weeks of this conflict have been painfully embarrassing for him, leading to a [haemorrhage of support among the Maga base](https://inews.co.uk/news/world/the-week-magas-civil-war-went-nuclear-4347321?ico=in-line_link). If he can make peace with Iran, it could launch his own bid for the presidency in 2028.

There are two competing frameworks for the negotiations. The US has a 15-point plan and, according to leaks, it includes a permanent commitment by Iran never to make a nuclear weapon. That means dismantling Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow nuclear facilities; handing over all enriched uranium to the IAEA; and IAEA monitoring of all remaining nuclear infrastructure. The US plan also reportedly includes limits on ballistic missiles; an end to support for Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas, and militias in Iraq; and [recognition of Israel’s right to exist](https://inews.co.uk/opinion/trump-netanyahus-downfalls-coming-both-know-4343960?ico=in-line_link).

Tehran has a 10-point plan, which includes US acceptance of Iran’s right to uranium enrichment, and continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is demanding war reparations, a commitment from the US never to attack again, the lifting of all sanctions, and the withdrawal of US combat forces from the region.

It will be hard to reconcile those two lists in the two weeks that President Trump has given for the pause in US combat operations. The hope is that enough progress can be made in that time for the ceasefire to be extended and extended again. That depends on whether Witkoff, Kushner, and Vance can shape a deal that is not too obvious a humiliation for Trump. In the run-up to the ceasefire, Trump appeared increasingly desperate. The US is much stronger than Iran militarily, but as he found, you can win every battle and still lose the war. The question now: will Iran allow Trump to save face?

> *will* struggle

Wrong tense. Consequences of having amateurish yesmen staffers.