„Gut für Russland, gut für China, schlecht für Amerika“: Wie der Iran-Krieg die Weltwirtschaft und Macht verändert

The missiles may eventually stop for good. Oil tankers will once again pass through the Strait of Hormuz. But even if the tenuous two-week ceasefire gives way to a lasting end to hostilities, the world economy that emerges from the Iran war will bear little resemblance to the one that entered it.

That is the conclusion of investors, economists, and strategists around the world. The common thread isn’t fear of a specific catastrophe. It’s something more unsettling: the sense that a series of permanent structural shifts—in supply chains, in geopolitical alliances, in the balance of economic power—have been accelerated by a war that nobody in power fully planned for.

“It’s going to look fundamentally different for a while, no matter what,” said [Steve Hanke](https://engineering.jhu.edu/faculty/steven-hanke/), professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University. He summed up the new world order, defined by the winners and losers of this unfolding disaster, in three statements: “Good for Russia; good for China; bad for America.”

Even if the new ceasefire holds and energy prices recede, relief won’t come quickly—and the ripple effects of higher prices could still cause a global recession or even a depression. The Trump administration’s erratic military escalation, meanwhile, could be an even more disruptive force over time, breaking up longtime economic alliances and undermining the country’s status as the world’s most powerful economy.

Read more: [https://fortune.com/2026/04/10/what-will-world-economy-look-like-after-iran-war-china-russia-win/](https://fortune.com/2026/04/10/what-will-world-economy-look-like-after-iran-war-china-russia-win/)