Peking kommt zu dem Schluss, dass Trump vor einer strategischen Iran-Falle steht, da die Verbündeten schwinden

(Submission Statement)

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The ‘short war’ in the Middle East has now entered its second month. Both sides remain engaged in mutual attacks despite rising financial and human costs, as the world faces recessionary pressures. China has, so far, stayed out of the conflict, only occasionally calling for peace through dialogue. However, Beijing has reached two important conclusions: first, the war has shown the operational limits of the US-led coalition and serious restrictions on its hegemonic reach. Second, Iran seems increasingly isolated and battered, maintaining a fragile control over a shrinking, though still damaging, capacity for retaliation.

China believes that the US President made two early misjudgements: first, that the Venezuela model could be copied, and second, that Iran’s regime would fall quickly through leadership decapitation. The mistake strengthened the regime, helping it solidify power by adopting a measured escalation approach, prolonging the conflict and gradually raising the costs of war. For Trump, the short campaign has become a strategic trap: military strikes yield decreasing benefits, while regime change and a clear exit plan remain out of reach.