Ich habe meine 40.000 Monte-Carlo-Simulationen der Wahlen in Ungarn veröffentlicht. Vor zwei Wochen erlebte die extreme Rechte einen Aufschwung. Das hat sich einfach umgekehrt. [OC]

This is my third update here. The first time it was a coin flip. The second time TISZA (opposition) had pulled ahead. Now the picture has shifted again.

The shift since my last [r/dataisbeautiful](https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/) post (March 8):

– TISZA (opposition) majority: 71.7% → 79.7% (+8pp)

– Fidesz (Orbán) majority: 16.9% → 12.4% (-4.5pp)

– Deadlock: 11.4% → 7.9% (-3.5pp)

– Mi Hazánk enters parliament: 72.8% → 61.0% (-11.8pp)

Last time the story was Mi Hazánk (far-right) surging toward parliament and making everything more complex. That trend has now reversed: their entry probability dropped from a peak of 81.6% to 61.0%. Without a third party splitting seats, TISZA’s vote lead converts more directly into a seat majority.

Orbán’s own numbers haven’t moved. But the math around him has.

Tools: Python, PyMC, matplotlib.

Data: from the Vox Populi polling database [www.kozvelemeny.org](http://www.kozvelemeny.org/)

Full analysis: [https://www.szazkilencvenkilenc.hu/forecast-2026-03-28/](https://www.szazkilencvenkilenc.hu/forecast-2026-03-28/)

Methodology: [https://www.szazkilencvenkilenc.hu/methodology-v2/](https://www.szazkilencvenkilenc.hu/methodology-v2/)

The model (Krónikás/Chronicler) is just open-sourced:  [https://github.com/vtisza/kronikas/](https://github.com/vtisza/kronikas/)

Happy to answer questions about the model, the methodology, or Hungarian politics.

The 0,0% looks out of place. I would remove the Fidesz supermajority compleatly. Sometimes less is more, especially in data presentation.