Der japanische Yen erreichte 160 gegenüber dem Dollar, den schwächsten Stand seit Juli 2024

It was widely anticipated, as the Korean won had already surpassed the historically significant 1,500 psychological mark.

¥160 has remained the MOF intervention floor since 2024, with the MOF and BOJ having commented at least 16 times about yen weakness in the past four weeks since the war began. Today, Trump’s jawboning effect helped cool the rising oil price and dollar index, pushing this forward.

Before it broke, the market was self-censoring from reaching ¥160 as algo fund holders feared intervention. Yet the fundamental reality cannot go unchanged.

The MOF this time — as the problem is structural — will likely try to muddle through to ¥165 before actual intervention. Katayama will likely announce a rate check with major banks next Monday in a desperate attempt to calm the market as a final verbal warning short of action, yet credibility erosion is also happening in real time.

TLDR: FX intervention risk is getting very high, but there is a possibility that the floor could be pushed further down before a desperate attempt to save the yen, or before being accompanied by a BOJ rate hike.

Edit: grammar fix