Nach offiziellen Angaben wird mit dem Zusammenbruch des Regimes im Iran Monate nach dem Krieg gerechnet

“At no stage did we think the regime would fall during the war,” the official said. “The assessments were that the regime’s collapse would come several months after the war. No one thought the public could take to the streets while under bombardment.”

Actually, Trump said that exact thing would happen.

More mission accomplished BS

Even if it was like that, so their plan is to guarantee that the regime will never agree to a ceasefire or what?

Great so stop the war now so we can get to that faster.

But we are not at war

Teheran in 3 days type of vibes

The mechanism for post-war regime collapse matters more than the timeline. Aerial bombardment alone has not produced regime collapse in any modern conflict – Serbia, Iraq, Libya all survived intensive air campaigns. The actual collapse mechanism is: economic stress → elite defection from the regime coalition → institutional fragmentation. That takes time to compound.

Iran’s specific structure makes this harder than Israeli officials are assuming. The IRGC isn’t just a military force – it’s a parallel economy with construction, logistics, and sanctions-busting revenue streams that give it financial autonomy from the formal state budget. Even if the government goes bankrupt, the IRGC has independent means to pay its own forces. That’s the part that doesn’t collapse on anyone’s 3-month timeline.

The more significant detail buried in this article is the Kharg Island angle – if the US is genuinely moving toward seizing Iran’s primary oil export terminal (handling ~90% of exports), that’s a fundamentally different operation than an air campaign. It requires holding fixed coastal territory against shore-based anti-ship missiles, Iranian naval harassment, and potentially years of occupation. It also gives the IRGC a rallying point for exactly the kind of nationalist resistance that keeps regimes together longer than intelligence assessments predict. Iraq 2003 planned for 3 months of post-war stabilization. Afghanistan was 20 years. The historical base rate on „months after the war“ is not encouraging.

Just like they are expecting a regime collapse in Cuba any day now….. since 1952 lol

This is gonna be the new „They’re 2 weeks away from a nuke argument. We’ve been waiting almost 70 years on Cuba and how has that worked out?

Months after, can be 5 months or 5000 months.

Please. The Guardian council will burn the entire Middle East to the ground and render the entire area uninhabitable before ceding power.

Sure. We’ll just have to wait until after the midterms to see it..

Things that won’t happen for $500

Yeah, but It was probably going to collapse anyway due to the oncoming water crisis, so how did he war help?

Laughing…what a great setup so they can pull plug, declare victory in the face of a patently pathetic strategy.

Is this what chat will call: cope?

Trump said (and expected) the regime to fall as a direct result of the targeted hit. They (the alt right sphere) proudly shouted it, tweeted it, everything.

Now that they have clearly bit off far more than what they can handle, the try to retroactively reframe what they said

Well we are definitely talking less about the Epstein files.