Haben wir die Decke von Carney und den Boden von Poilievre erreicht?

Unsure if this is Carney’s ceiling, but also fairly confident this isn’t Poilievre’s floor. He can go lower if Trump turns his fire on us again. After that, it’s the simplest of tasks to associate Poilievre and his fellow travelers with their ideological counterparts in MAGA, and no doubt some patriotic conservatives will reconsider their support if the message is clear enough – vote Poilievre, get Trump.

Unfortunate for PP, but it’s the way the cookie crumbles – he has to get off the fence eventually, but for now he prefers to ham it up with Joe Rogan. And that choice comes with electoral costs.

I don’t see a path forward for Poilievre so his floor is zero and goodbye. Carney is more interesting. I think he’ll hit his ceiling soon because he will eventually have to start spending political capital on tough but necessary things. He’s had a few good months pitching Canada across the globe but what will his deals look like in practice? Qatar, China, and the UAE aren’t going to invest billions without strings attached. He might sell them critical assets, exempt them from safety and environmental regulations, and give them sweetheart grants as they lay off workers. How about Carney’s defence investments? Where will those weapons go? Will they be used to commit atrocities? Things like this will start eating away at his polling. The question is how much.