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    Vom Zusammenbruch zur Dominanz „EKOS-Politik“ LPC 🟥 47,5, CPC 🟦 27,0, NDP 🟧 15,1

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    10 Kommentare

    1. TheWaySheHoes on

      The LPC has taken the lead in Alberta, 41-37 but with a surprisingly high NDP number there too.

      I’m not sure I buy that, but poll after poll is showing that Alberta has thawed massively to Carney and Calgary and Edmonton are now certified battlegrounds.

      This is a five alarm fire for the Conservatives.

      Quebec is also a bloodbath. The Bloc are down nearly 30 points. At this point I feel like Terrebonne has to be considered “Leaning LPC”.

    2. Drummers_Beat on

      This isn’t even really an outlier as it’s not that far off Abacus, Nanos, or others. The LPC number has stayed remarkably static around 46-50%. This is a lower CPC number than usual though but given the collapsing trend we’re seeing it doesn’t shock me too much.

      In models this would project to 270+ seats for LPC which is just absurd.

    3. OneLessFool on

      I mean if there’s any good news for the NDP here, it is a recovery trend that Lewis can grow on. If the CPC numbers are anywhere near 27.0 come election time, the NDP will have a very easy time picking up ABC progressives who held their nose and voted for the Liberals in the last election

    4. isle_say on

      My read is that the NDPers that voted Liberal in the last election are drifting back but enough conservatives are moving to the Liberal to more than make up the difference. Carney is even cutting into the conservative base.

    5. GirlCoveredInBlood on

      Entered all the regional data into the Poliwave simulator and got the following results

      LPC 267 seats

      CPC 54 seats

      NDP 18 seats

      GPC 3 seats

      BQ 1 seat

      They have the LPC at 49.2% in QC to the Blocs 18.7%. Funny enough the CPC and NDP both manage to have two seats in Québec

    6. Asadleafsfan on

      Like a few others have already noted, EKOS’ strength has been in catching polling trends earlier before anyone else, even if the numbers are dead wrong in the moment. So the question then becomes: what numbers will the other pollsters be producing in the next few weeks?

      (This is all assuming that EKOS is actually catching a trend here, which possibly it might actually not be)

    7. Various-Passenger398 on

      Liberals leading in all demographics except men 50-64 and families with 3+ children.

      Liberals leading in all regions of the country, even Alberta.

      Poilievre is getting absolutely thrashed right now. That sham of a leadership contest is going to age like milk in the foreseeable future.

    8. PotentialRise7587 on

      From a quick scan of the poll:

      -Liberals leading by 4 in Alberta is pretty bad news for the CPC. Liberals also have a ridiculous 41 point lead with voters 65+.

      -Some signs of an NDP recovery, before the new leader has even been elected. They’ve retaken part of their historical competitiveness among voters under 35.

    9. OttoVonDisraeli on

      In the lead in Alberta!? Is hell freezing over? What a crazy time we’re living in. The Liberals are showing why they are referred to as the Natural Governing Party of Canada. Sorry I have nothing more substantive to say, I’m actually shocked by this.

    10. AdmiralAsshat69 on

      Looks to me like Carney is getting all the PCs and the NDP is recovering support from the left (a bit).

      And while it looks good for the LPC, we are about to enter a massive energy/financial crisis, so all bets are off in the long term.

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