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2Â Kommentare
It seems likely that China may have already reached peak oil or its right on the edge, with only oil to chemical demand continuing to grow, while EVs have hit the tipping point of over 50% of new car sales. Total ICE vehicles are set to start to decline within the next 5 years.
Whether demand for Canadian oil products is largely maintained +/- 10 or 15% over the next 25 years, the use case is going to rapidly change. The days of buying Alberta bitumen at a discount and cracking it into cheap diesel for global markets on the Gulf coast are numbered. The future of the market for heavy oil products is in petrochemicals.
I don’t think we’re shutting down Alberta oil any time soon, but it’s not going to grow, (it’s definitely not going to double in 10 years like Danielle Smith thinks it will), and the days of burning the stuff have a clock.
If we can get cheap long-duration electricity storage working, it’s going to really change the economics for renewables. Right now solar and wind is absurdly cheap, extending storage beyond the few hours that the economics of lithium allow for will be huge for cheap AND reliable energy. If we can’t provide reliable grid power, what ends up happening is that data centres just buy a Bloom Box and generate their own electricity from natural gas, undermining our greenhouse gas emissions.
I’d also like to see Canada start to think about creating the legislative framework for innovations like plug-in balcony solar. In Europe, you can buy a panel literally from the grocery that plugs right into your apartment’s wall outlet and shaves your power usage from the grid. They even have all-in-one battery + solar products like Anker Solix that can store excess for the early evening. 2 American states have legalized balcony solar and we’re falling behind.