Ungarns Opposition liegt in Umfragen vorne, aber das System favorisiert immer noch Orbán [ANALYSIS]

Much as I would love to see the back of Orban, he has so rigged the election system and politics and society in general that I think he will win again.

Péter Magyar is going round the country even in rural cities and small towns/villages. This helps him get more voters, and even if he doesn’t win in one, the difference between the TISZA candidate and the Fidesz candidate will be so small that the extra votes by winner’s compensation won’t matter that much.

Gerrymandering is a huge issue in Hungary, and last year, the collective opposition lost a lot of seats because they never actually campaigned outside of Budapest or bigger cities.

Just take a look at this year’s March 15th rally by Tisza and compare the crowd to 2022’s March 15th rally by the collective opposition. Way more people are fed up with the government now, and a lot of people who were originally going to vote for Fidesz because „if they don’t, they might get punished“ just decided not to go vote at all.

It might be copium but I think TISZA might actually get a supermajority due to the winner’s compensation system. Orbán’s weapon is backfiring on him.