In this analysis, CNN’s Chief Security Correspondent Nick Patton Walsh shows how US President Donald Trump has, despite his increasingly loud declarations, decidedly *not* won the war in Iran, and may in fact be stuck there for some time against his own volition. Walsh states Trump has fallen for „the oldest trap of modern warfare – believing a swift, surgical military operation will yield quick, enduring political results.“ And the longer this „surgical military operation“ continues, he argues, the worse the outcomes will be for the USA, the US military, and for Trump’s political ambitions.
He also argues Trump has made a significant tactical blunder by publically and repeatedly claiming victory, exposing how desperately he wants the war to end and giving an upper-hand to Iran as a result.
IHerebyDemandtoPost on
Trump has lost control of this war. Iran is fighting neither on Trump‘s terms nor his timeline. He thought so little of them, he didn’t even conceive of this possibility.
myphriendmike on
This just screams of media negativity pushing a narrative. Iran is crushed. They have exactly one card to play and the longer they do the more pissed off the other players will get. Sure they’ll be mad at Trump for starting it, but they’ll put down Iran just to be rid of the turmoil.
justlurkshere on
The theme here is consistent with a lot of activities by Trump and the people he puts into positions.
– They expect to be able to act unilaterally.
– When the party they attack starts to respond Trump & co always seem like they are completly caught off guard, it’s the bully response when the victim punches back.
– There is no depth to planning, everything is seen as a single action that will fix any complex issue.
– When the plan goes wrong the only continuity is to start pushing blatant lies.
You see the same in the Iran mess now that you see on even tiny issues domestically.
maru_tyo on
The problem is that we live in a post-truth world.
If Trump declares victory, there are enough people who accept this as the truth and give him what he wants.
As we have seen in the past, even if people who are actively involved and contradict anything Trump says, they will be dismissed as „fake“, „radical“ or in some other way discredited.
So whether Trump „wins“ this war or not is completely irrelevant except for the people in Iran, the US and the western world will just accept a new status quo and go on.
The only exception I can see is if this war collapses the world economy completely somehow. Even lasting price increases will just be accepted, as we have accepted rising prices for the last few decades.
ChZakalwe on
China is so happy watching Afghanistan and Iraq 2, electrix boogaloo.
Though i waill say, watching the US munition burn rate without being able to reppace has been incredibly illuminating.
If i was Taiwan, i’d be sprinting fir some kind of MAD donctrine agaisnt china. The US wont be able to respond even if they wanted to.
Additional-Library55 on
The problem is in the maximalist definition of goals. Trump, in some sense like Putin, ~~defined~~ envisioned maximalist goal of **complete capitulation** of IRGC. Which obviously didn’t happen. Merely by surviving IRGC is denying him this win.
Why did he want this maximalist goal and why didn’t he think of 2nd order and 3rd order effects – because he acts on gut feel and not expert analysis and he has surrounded himself with radical secretaries, advisors and allies. Wonder how much of it is driven by his / MAGA’s ego and pride in American exceptionalism and desire to leave a bigger legacy than Obama
SirBulbasaur13 on
Sure he can. He can just say “we done, we win” and pack it up.
It might not be true or palatable for Americans but he *could* end it just like that.
FriedRiceistheBest on
Americans got what they voted for and now the rest of the world is paying the price.
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In this analysis, CNN’s Chief Security Correspondent Nick Patton Walsh shows how US President Donald Trump has, despite his increasingly loud declarations, decidedly *not* won the war in Iran, and may in fact be stuck there for some time against his own volition. Walsh states Trump has fallen for „the oldest trap of modern warfare – believing a swift, surgical military operation will yield quick, enduring political results.“ And the longer this „surgical military operation“ continues, he argues, the worse the outcomes will be for the USA, the US military, and for Trump’s political ambitions.
He also argues Trump has made a significant tactical blunder by publically and repeatedly claiming victory, exposing how desperately he wants the war to end and giving an upper-hand to Iran as a result.
Trump has lost control of this war. Iran is fighting neither on Trump‘s terms nor his timeline. He thought so little of them, he didn’t even conceive of this possibility.
This just screams of media negativity pushing a narrative. Iran is crushed. They have exactly one card to play and the longer they do the more pissed off the other players will get. Sure they’ll be mad at Trump for starting it, but they’ll put down Iran just to be rid of the turmoil.
The theme here is consistent with a lot of activities by Trump and the people he puts into positions.
– They expect to be able to act unilaterally.
– When the party they attack starts to respond Trump & co always seem like they are completly caught off guard, it’s the bully response when the victim punches back.
– There is no depth to planning, everything is seen as a single action that will fix any complex issue.
– When the plan goes wrong the only continuity is to start pushing blatant lies.
You see the same in the Iran mess now that you see on even tiny issues domestically.
The problem is that we live in a post-truth world.
If Trump declares victory, there are enough people who accept this as the truth and give him what he wants.
As we have seen in the past, even if people who are actively involved and contradict anything Trump says, they will be dismissed as „fake“, „radical“ or in some other way discredited.
So whether Trump „wins“ this war or not is completely irrelevant except for the people in Iran, the US and the western world will just accept a new status quo and go on.
The only exception I can see is if this war collapses the world economy completely somehow. Even lasting price increases will just be accepted, as we have accepted rising prices for the last few decades.
China is so happy watching Afghanistan and Iraq 2, electrix boogaloo.
Though i waill say, watching the US munition burn rate without being able to reppace has been incredibly illuminating.
If i was Taiwan, i’d be sprinting fir some kind of MAD donctrine agaisnt china. The US wont be able to respond even if they wanted to.
The problem is in the maximalist definition of goals. Trump, in some sense like Putin, ~~defined~~ envisioned maximalist goal of **complete capitulation** of IRGC. Which obviously didn’t happen. Merely by surviving IRGC is denying him this win.
Steve witkoff himself said it a week before war that Trump was curious that why Iran hasn’t capitulated completely yet https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn5gk15rr70o
Why did he want this maximalist goal and why didn’t he think of 2nd order and 3rd order effects – because he acts on gut feel and not expert analysis and he has surrounded himself with radical secretaries, advisors and allies. Wonder how much of it is driven by his / MAGA’s ego and pride in American exceptionalism and desire to leave a bigger legacy than Obama
Sure he can. He can just say “we done, we win” and pack it up.
It might not be true or palatable for Americans but he *could* end it just like that.
Americans got what they voted for and now the rest of the world is paying the price.