Der Fluch mittelgroßer Kriege: Im Iran läuft Trump Gefahr, in eine bekannte Falle zu tappen

[Excerpt from essay by Robert D. Kaplan, Distinguished Senior Lecturer at the University of Texas at Austin and the author of *Waste Land: A World in Permanent Crisis*.]

The Trump administration’s war in Iran has the potential to evolve into a middle-sized war if the clerical regime does not surrender, as U.S. President Donald Trump demands, and continued U.S. and Israeli bombing leads to anarchy in Iran and destabilizes the Persian Gulf. The gap between toppling an existing order and erecting a new, more pliable one can be vast.

The United States exists in the world as a de facto empire, and misbegotten wars are embedded in the history of imperialism itself. The point of imperialism is to involve the empire in places that are potentially beneficial but not necessarily vital to its national interest. Repeated involvement in periodic middle-sized wars, even as public officials and civilians alike declare they will never happen again, reflects the modern imperial condition of the United States. If leaders are not careful, these middle-sized wars will weaken the United States and contribute to its ultimate demise.