Der Iran setzt auf Ausdauer und Energieunterbrechung, um die USA und Israel zu überdauern

Submission statement:

The article is based on opinions from experts on Iranian politics and Iranian insiders. It argues that the IRGC is firmly in control of the country and, having long ago concluded that war with Israel and the US was inevitable, are now putting in motion a layered strategy they had prepared for this situation. The strategy is to conduct escalating strikes on Gulf countries, targeting energy hubs from Qatar to Saudi Arabia to maximise economic disruption, hoping the increased economic costs for its neighbours, Europe and the United States will test Washington’s political will.

Additional reading:

* [A world at war: Iran conflict goes global](https://www.axios.com/2026/03/10/world-war-iran-conflict-countries) (Axios)
* [‘Sounds familiar’: how the US-Israeli war in Iran parallels Russia’s invasion of Ukraine • Both campaigns have been framed differently at different times, with dubious claims of defensive action and a curious reluctance to label it war](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/10/how-the-us-israeli-war-in-iran-parallels-russia-invasion-of-ukraine) (Guardian)
* [Iran Has Friends, but Where Are They Now? Iran maintains ties with a range of countries, including Turkey, India, Russia and China. Yet in this war, their support is mostly rhetoric.](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/05/world/middleeast/iran-turkey-india-russia.html) (New York Times)
* [What China’s response to the US attack on Iran says about its foreign policy](https://apnews.com/article/china-position-us-iran-attack-1042fa7295500f90ecd6285d552da349) (Associated Press)

See also about the human and environmental cost of the war:

* [Bombing of Iran’s oil infrastructure to have major environmental fallout, experts warn](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/10/bombing-of-irans-oil-infrastructure-to-have-major-environmental-fallout-experts-warn) (Guardian)
* [Civilians Killed by Strikes in Gulf States Are Almost All Migrant Workers](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/world/middleeast/iran-war-migrant-deaths.html) (New York Times)

It is a very safe bet because the world economy has no insulation to a shock to the energy sector. Even the U.S. which is relatively energy independent in comparison to the rest of the world cannot sustain such a shock. Being ideologically driven and having a real incentive (like Israel does) could make you persevere but even then, once ordinary people’s pockets are affected, you have to deal with the war on two fronts. The military side and the information side. The information side is much harder if you don’t have a cause that began the war (e.g. 9/11, Oct 7th, Invasion of Poland etc.) and that is the situation the U.S. is in. You don’t need to convince Pro-Israel Americans why this war is ‘necessary’ but those Americans are becoming few and far between nowadays meaning there’s a hell of a lot of convincing to do and this is in the very early days of the war. The convincing gets harder and harder the longer the war goes on. No doubt the Islamic Republic have factored all of this in and that’s why they’re going for the economic shock.