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9 Kommentare
In January, a [study in Science](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aea6130) documented a supply shock in the illicit fentanyl market: declining purity in seized drugs, fewer seizures overall, and even complaints on social media about fentanyl becoming harder to find. The decline showed up simultaneously in Canada, ruling out US-specific explanations like changes in policing or treatment access.
The most likely cause, according to the study, is that China cracked down on exports of fentanyl precursor chemicals, the raw ingredients that Mexican cartels use to manufacture the drug. That crackdown came out of sustained diplomatic pressure from the Biden administration, culminating in a [formal agreement at the Biden-Xi summit](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/us-china-relations-and-fentanyl-and-precursor-cooperation-in-2024/) in November 2023. As Jeffrey Prescott of the Carnegie Endowment [wrote](https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2026/01/fentanyl-china-us-deaths-foreign-policy-outcomes?lang=en), „Foreign policy outcomes can be hard to measure. This one isn’t.“
More details about this trend are in the [blog post here](https://blog.waldrn.com/p/fentanyl-deaths-keep-falling).
Tools: R and d3.js. Code at https://github.com/dawaldron/fentanyl-deaths
Source: CDC WONDER and VSRR drug overdose deaths
Someone is going to take credit soon!
Drugs, in this economy?!
the question is, did Trump’s posturing and ICE actually helped? or did he just made people too poor to buy Fentanyl?
Because I can see this being a talking point on both sides
is this absolute deaths or rate per population?
Wait we trust data from the CDC now….?
Would love to see how this data differs from…
State Unintentional Drug Overdose Reporting System (SUDORS): This system collects comprehensive data on unintentional and undetermined intent drug overdose deaths, including toxicology, scene findings, and autopsy reports from 47 states and the District of Columbia.
Provisional Drug Overdose Data: The CDC provides monthly, provisional data on drug overdose deaths, including synthetic opioids (such as fentanyl), to identify trends within 4-5 months.
Drug Overdose Surveillance and Epidemiology (DOSE) System: This system tracks nonfatal, suspected drug overdoses using emergency department data.
As someone in recovery, the quality of fentanyl available took a massive nosedive around the summer of 2024. Myself, as well as many others managed to get clean around that time (didn’t have much of a choice tbh, at that point you were basically handing money away for free with how low quality some of the stuff going around was). There was some weird shit being cut into stuff that started popping up around then.
May 2023: Biden closes parts of the border due to the upcoming election
This chart seems like good news but is slightly misleading.
I live in Philly and my wife works with many active drug users in a medical setting. The addicts in Kensington have moved onto newer drugs, so while fentanyl might be declining, there are different intravenous drugs that have absolutely outstripped it and are sometimes deadlier (Tranq and Medetomidine in particular)