Wie lange kann das iranische Regime durchhalten?

[Excerpt from essay by Suzanne Maloney, Vice President of the Brookings Institution and Director of its Foreign Policy program.]

Just days after clerics in Iran celebrated the 47th anniversary of the revolution that brought them to power, the United States and Israel assassinated Iran’s senior leadership, razed its military infrastructure, and humbled the once seemingly impregnable theocracy. The death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior military and political leaders at the hands of their foremost adversary leaves a gaping vacuum. U.S. President Donald Trump seems to think that airstrikes will enable an uprising; he has urged Iranians to “take over” their government.

The bitter reality, however, is that the remnants of the regime are well armed and well entrenched. For years, they have been preparing for a scenario just like the one today. After decades of brutal repression, Iranians are poorly equipped to mount a successful challenge to clerical rule. When the guns fall silent, the most likely outcome is that some residual version of Iran’s revolutionary regime will remain intact, albeit more bloodied, battered, and vulnerable than at almost any point since 1979.

It took a full scale invasion in Iraq, a weaker country, so people need to seriously rethink their faith in the ability to just airstrike away a 45 year old government system.

A long time. I’d argue that the Iranian regime is stronger now than it was before the strikes.