Dies ist eine interessante Forschungsarbeit, die die Runde gemacht hat. Es wird über die finanziellen Auswirkungen der Verdrängung von Arbeitskräften durch KI spekuliert. Im Wesentlichen geht es darum, was passiert, wenn KI-induzierte Arbeitslosigkeit und Lohnkürzungen zu einer geringeren Nachfrage in der Wirtschaft führen, auch wenn KI einige Sektoren produktiver macht.
Diese Art von Spekulation ist nichts Neues; Über dieses Szenario wundern sich Menschen schon seit Jahren. Was mich an dieser speziellen Forschungsarbeit interessiert, ist die Reaktion darauf. Wie vorherzusehen war, kritisieren die Verteidiger von Big Tech dies, doch überall um uns herum gibt es Anzeichen dafür, dass es wahr wird.
DIE GLOBALE INTELLIGENZKRISE 2028: Eine Gedankenübung zur Finanzgeschichte aus der Zukunft
The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis: What happens as AI displaces workers.
byu/lughnasadh inFuturology
4 Kommentare
When enough people are replaced, companies will be replaced. Entire business models will end. Banks, credit score agencies, advertising companies, consulting firms. Entire multinationals will be pushed out of business.
But there is a problem. Cybersecurity. AI makes mistakes even with perfect data. Prompt injection, self replicant malicious AI, AI unable to keep secrets. No one has figured out a solution. I anticipate 20 years of headaches for AI companies.
I think the demand side question is the part people gloss over. Productivity going up sounds great on paper, but if a lot of people feel less secure about their income, they spend differently. That shift alone can ripple through everything.
At the same time, tech waves in the past created new roles we couldn’t really predict. The uncomfortable part is the transition period. It’s rarely smooth, and it usually hits certain groups harder first.
Feels less like a sudden crisis and more like a slow pressure build. The real question is whether policy and companies adapt fast enough, not whether the tech keeps moving forward.
The problem is that this is only looking at one side of the equation. You are creating a model where only income goes away, but that is impossible. If there are zero jobs in software that means all software is basically free. If there are no jobs in food that means food is basically free. If everything is free you can retire on very little savings or income.
The Ai bubble burst will put a halt to the billionaire fantasizing. Eventually it will come to fruition maybe by 2038. We’ll need to put something like UBI in place but I don’t have much faith in those in charge