Warum der saudische Kronprinz MBS niemals dem Abraham-Abkommen beitreten wird | Die Jerusalem Post

In short nobody in that region wants to be the next Sadat, and lose influence, Saudi Arabia case is especially sensitive as it seeks to be the leader of the Arab and possibly islamic world (since Egypt been in decline as the Arab world leader since the camp david Accords, Iraq has declined since the 2003 American intervention, Iran position is in free fall collapse since the 12 day war,,and the loss of Syria to a Sunni islamist regime, speaking of Syria still recovering from its war and is in debt, and needing serious reconclstruction, former Ghaddifi rival is dead and Libya is still divided , etc. All the contenders for leader of the arab world, except maybe Turkey under Erodgan or Qatar are in bad shape). Saudi Arabia is also the custodian of mecca and Medina so is more sensitive to the causes that ripple in the islamist world whatever it is The Palestinans, Kashmir, Kosovo, Afghanistan, the Southern Cacuses, etc, and so fourth. Lastly Saudi Arabia no longer needs Israel it got what it wanted with a non-NATO major ally statsus ,it got the historic $110 billion arms package under Trump in 2017 (without joining the Abharam accords) qnd the 2025 arms deal under trump second term (in both terms) including Thaad,combat ships,tanks, cybersecurity/communications technology , f-35 jets, patriot missiles, erc. In exchange for saudi arabia would invest inside the united states to help the us economy, all of that without ever normalizing relations with Israel, or ever joining the Abhraham accords, while gaining access to nukes in it defense pact with Pakistan, and now with a new syria doesnt need to depend on Israel for the Qatari-Turkish- Jordanian- Syrian- turkish pipeline to Europe, and lastly it rival Iran, and it proxies has been severely weakened across the region, and no longer the exestinal threat to Saudi regime survival, and the groups like ISIS, and Al qaeda threat while still relevant, aren’t what they once was to the region, while Saudi Arabia has engaged in a rift, and rivarly with the UAE over Somolia and Somaliland, the red sea ports, businesses, shipping lanes, Sudan, Yemen , aviation (Riydah air is created basically to take on the other mideast airlines including Eithad and the very much high quality successful Emirates, which is proabably the best mideast airline), comptetion over buying up assets, tourist sites, film industry in Egypt, as well as opec oil and gas politics, and UAE aligning with anti-Islamist milltias, figures, successionist-Patriots, while Saudi Arabia wants to prop up remaining institutions, governments and militaries as a more conservative policy regardless of these institutions ties with islamists in Yemen, Libya, sudan, and even the mullahs in Iran (yet in a weakened state), the race to Ai and semiconductor chips, etc.

I think another couple fears is that in Saudi Arabia , that in this article is not touched upon too much upon (or at all) is that Israel as seen as hurting Saudi national intreasts , whatever that recognizing Somaliland independence, alleged collaboration with the UAE,,and Southern secessionists in the Yemen, the annexation plans in the west bank is inflaming the region and hurts the house of saud own standings with it own population, the 2025 strike on qatar destabilizes Gulf security and seen as disrupting the GCC survival as a bloc (and well as making it harder for any government to move forward with normalization), while historically the gulf states have their rivarlies, it still considered tribal in a sense a outsider would get slapped down if attacking a Gulf state, think the gulf states backing Iraq in the Iran-Iraq war, the Gulf war coalition against Iraq, kicking iut the british eventually, etc., plus Israel is seen as taking the UAE side in the UAE-Saudi rift, and lastly proabably the mist important- no arab leader or muslim leader wants to be the next sadat, Bashir Gameyel or Abdullah I of Jordan for the mere attempt at some normalization with Israel, or fear a 1979 islamic revolution that saw the pro-Israeli shah overthrown in favor of the Pan-Islamist, apocalyptic Ayatollah Khomeini that saw it his duty to export Islamic revolution across the region.

In no way as pragmatic, young open minded with his economic liberalization,,and some of his domestic liberalization (ie -loosening the rules for certain wealthy types on alcohol sales and private consumption, entertainment venues where both men and women attend, allowing women the right to drive, reforming the education circulmn, while other religions are still illegal in the kingdom , there a wink and nod to atleast allow worshipping in private homes, as well as limiting the powers of the relgious police) can mbseven entertain the thought of normalization relations with Israel, least rival royal family members, the Muslim Brotherhood, or Whabbists (already angry that he disempowered their stasus), then would plot and seek to kill him and destabilize the kingdom, and broader region.

So for now I suspect a no normalization, no war policy and some back channel talks to de-esclate when intreasts clash.