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    🇪🇺 Über eine russische Invasion im Baltikum


    🇪🇺 Über eine russische Invasion im Baltikum

    https://steady.page/en/whatsoneurmind/posts/d68957de-a673-4a2f-8849-d4449f79ef19

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    2. Whats-on-Eur-Mind on

      This blog post is exploring Anders Puck Nielsen’s claim that a Russian invasion of the Baltic States could happen sooner than we think. It assesses the likelihood, the potential risk factors, and what it would mean for the future of Russia and the European Union.

      It analyses the situation in the lens of current geopolitical events, including US actions, Russian posturing, and Greenland.

    3. Bullboah on

      Highly disagree with some things here. I don’t think the ‘familial ties’ between the Baltics and EU states are stronger than NATO article 5. On an emotional level sure, but not in terms of deterrence or predicted response.

      The US not responding to an Article 5 invocation *while still in NATO* wouldn’t just mean the end to NATO, but a complete devaluation of US security guarantees for allies around the world. There’s a huge cost to the US to not respond, and Russia knows that. (And I don’t see Russia invading a NATO state while the US is in NATO for that reason.). The much bigger threat is the US leaving NATO in the next few years than remaining in but not responding. (It very very likely won’t *need* to respond while it remains in, based on that calculus).

      But let’s say the US leaves (or otherwise doesn’t respond, for the sake of argument). What does Europe do if Russia invades the baltics, without the US stepping in?

      A united European response is one thing, but does that happen? Is Spain willing to declare war on Russia? Even if they do, how many troops are they willing to send? Are the Netherlands willing to send troops to the Baltics if Spain isn’t? Etc. It becomes a prisoners dilemma fast with bad outcomes all over the matrix, imo.

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