[OC] Ergebnisse der US-Präsidentschaftswahlen als Anteil der wahlberechtigten Bevölkerung (1932–2024)

[OC] U.S. Presidential Election Results as a Share of the Voting-Eligible Population (1932–2024)

This chart shows U.S. presidential election outcomes since 1932 in terms of shares of the Voting-Eligible Population (VEP) rather than shares of ballots cast. For each election, the Electoral College winner’s share of VEP is shown as a bar, while the opposing major-party candidate and the share of eligible citizens who did not vote are shown as reference markers. By anchoring results to eligibility instead of turnout alone, the figure highlights how election outcomes have consistently depended as much on non-participation as on vote choice, and it places recent elections within a long historical range of participation levels rather than treating high raw vote totals as exceptional.

Inspiration:

Some commentary about the 2020 election has suggested that the results were historically implausible when viewed through raw vote totals alone. However, when evaluated as a share of the Voting-Eligible Population (VEP), Joe Biden’s result—approximately 34%—falls squarely within the modern historical range. Comparable outcomes include Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 (38%), Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956 (35%), Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 (39%), and Richard Nixon in 1972 (34%).

Use of Voting-Eligible Population:

U.S. population counts originate with the Census, which counts all residents—citizens and non-citizens alike. To measure electoral participation, researchers adjust those counts by subtracting adults who are legally ineligible to vote (most notably non-citizens). This statistical adjustment does not imply non-citizen voting; it ensures vote shares are compared against the population eligible to cast ballots.

Technologies:

Data coalesced in MacOS Numbers, then plotted in R (ggplot), exported via SVG device, and then assembly refined in Adobe Illustrator.

Data Sources:

University of Florida Election Lab (Michael P. McDonald). “National VEP Turnout Rates, 1789–Present (v1.3).” Dataset page (includes CSV download): [https://election.lab.ufl.edu/dataset/national-vep-turnout-rates-1789-present-v1-3/](https://election.lab.ufl.edu/dataset/national-vep-turnout-rates-1789-present-v1-3/)

University of Florida Election Lab. “United States Voter Turnout” (definition/description of VEP and exclusions): [https://election.lab.ufl.edu/voter-turnout/](https://election.lab.ufl.edu/voter-turnout/)

The American Presidency Project (John T. Woolley & Gerhard Peters), University of California, Santa Barbara. “Election Listing” and per-year election result tables (popular vote by party/candidate): [https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/elections](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/elections)

Example year page (1932): [https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/elections/1932](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/elections/1932)

Methodology:

1. TotalVotes = sum(votes for all candidates)
2. TurnoutRate = TotalVotes / VEP
3. VEP = TotalVotes / TurnoutRate
4. NonVoters = VEP − TotalVotes
5. CandidateShare = CandidateVotes / VEP
6. RemovedOtherVotes = sum(CandidateShare < 0.03)
7. Base = VEP − RemovedOtherVotes

REP% = 100 × RepublicanVotes / Base DEM% = 100 × DemocraticVotes / Base NON% = 100 × NonVoters / Base