[OC] Geschätzte Zahl der Todesopfer bei der Niederschlagung der Proteste im Iran vom 3. bis 4. Januar, wie von verschiedenen Quellen im Laufe der Zeit berichtet, unter vollständiger Internet- und Telefonabschaltung.

I understand why this is in log scale but I would also love to see it in linear.

One thing I’ve noticed about these estimates is that they are basically never accompanied by an explanation for how they were obtained. It’s completely impossible to do any meaningful comparison that way.

Mass communication is gone, independent reporters are either nonexistent or heavily restricted, free press hasn’t been a thing for decades, and any official numbers would be unreliable at best and outright lies at worst. So how do international observers even *attempt* to estimate the death toll? I don’t understand this at all.

There is no way you get WW1 battle death tolls from guys welding pistols and shotguns.

People were climbing barbed wire and directly fired upon by machine guns.

Information coming out is likely going to be heavily biased either towards or against. Given the footage of the crackdowns and the weapons being used we are likely looking at max a few hundred per major city per day.

We know the crackdown lasted 2 nights. Any number above 10k is just detached to reality.