Der überraschende Gewinner von Trumps militärischem Abenteurertum

In the 2010s, as the [US](https://inews.co.uk/topic/usa?ico=in-line_link) and [China](https://inews.co.uk/topic/china?ico=in-line_link) squared off on the global stage, I regularly heard a simple sentiment from Chinese analysts: “Iraq bought us a decade.” Now, [Donald Trump’s](https://inews.co.uk/topic/donald-trump?ico=in-line_link) new [aggression towards America’s allies](https://inews.co.uk/news/trump-greenland-ukraine-nato-4184096?ico=in-line_link) may buy China even more time and strategic space than the blunders of the “War on Terror” ever did.

Chinese experts saw the [Iraq War](https://inews.co.uk/topic/iraq-war?ico=in-line_link) as a gift because it drew US attention away from China’s rapidly growing economic and military strength. Before the [9/11 attacks](https://inews.co.uk/topic/9-11-attacks?ico=in-line_link), the Bush administration saw China as its principal foe, especially after a Chinese fighter rammed a US spy plane over the Chinese island of Hainan.

But as the “War on Terror” began, countering China’s ambitions rapidly slid down the priority list. Washington was even happy to accept Beijing’s labeling of certain militant organisations of [Uyghurs](https://inews.co.uk/topic/uighurs?ico=in-line_link), China’s Muslim minority, as terrorists, which has had long and damaging repercussions.

In recent years, US strategy has returned to focusing on an increasingly powerful China – a rare point of continuity between the Trump and Biden administrations.

US officials have spent considerable time and resources trying to find ways to constrain China’s technological and economic ambitions. Trump’s first year back in office suggested that the US would continue that strategy, with a vicious trade war aimed heavily at China threatening to obliterate the global economy.

Trump ultimately backed down in November, praising China’s President [Xi Jinping](https://inews.co.uk/topic/xi-jinping?ico=in-line_link) and reversing the ban on exporting powerful processing chips to China. He then turned his eye to softer targets like [Venezuela](https://inews.co.uk/topic/venezuela?srsltid=AfmBOopUljzBxM3SBrQ5PSyday0FPoBO8pTHe4mI9ESaQMXcD5Avjq4A&ico=in-line_link) and [Greenland](https://inews.co.uk/topic/greenland?srsltid=AfmBOop2wN6CZ_WaXWFsRY8rgrHsa3cd6VVRj3fGAL7B2sHneIj35v8-&ico=in-line_link).

This swing by Trump gives China plenty of breathing room, which it badly needs.

[The Chinese economy is still stumbling](https://inews.co.uk/opinion/chinas-economy-big-trouble-good-news-uk-2597428?srsltid=AfmBOooOSJuH_kUnWq5EzhXTblEK3RB0WurlAUcSuQmytuS33LDUEoiu&ico=in-line_link) under the weight of a Covid-induced slowdown, an ageing population, and a years-long real estate crisis. The Chinese military, meanwhile, has gone through multiple rounds of political purges and corruption scandals.

A distracted US means a chance for China to take stock and accumulate power – or as 1990s Chinese leader, Jiang Zemin, famously put it: to “hide our strength and bide our time”.

It’s quite clear that America cannot compete with China, and will use military force to prevent what is, in fact, pure capitalist competition. China is the world leader in electric vehicles, creating far superior cars than the US, so the US bans sales. They create a leading social media site, America tries to take control of it. They lead in AI tech despite the US banning sales of gpu’s. A typical response would be to out-innovate them, instead the US is slashing science and research budgets and ignoring the clean revolution in favour of “drill baby drill”. Eventually, the military will be the only mechanism the US has to force countries to trade with them, but they have a lot yet to lose – the F35 contracts, the $300bn Australian subs, Canadian electricity, EU military bases….