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    Wie das iranische Regime bricht: Der Bruch der Elite wird allmählich und dann plötzlich kommen


    Wie das iranische Regime bricht: Der Bruch der Elite wird allmählich und dann plötzlich kommen

    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/how-iranian-regime-breaks

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    4 Kommentare

    1. 1-randomonium on

      People are far too optimistic about Iran. The Ayatollah is largely a figurehead; it’s the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps(IRGC) that actually runs the country and it’s more deeply embedded and secure than the Chavista regime in Venezuela.

      The only way Trump can actually overthrow it and set up a new political system with someone like Reza Pahlavi is if he commits to a ground invation and occupation comparable to that in Iraq.

      What is more likely to happen is that the Ayatollah will be killed or otherwise replaced and then Trump’s people will cut a Venezuela-like deal with the IRGC. And Reza Pahlavi will be reduced to a mute spectator in the West; unlike Machado he doesn’t even have a Nobel Peace Prize to offer Trump.

    2. littleredpinto on

      What exactly are your options to change a system where the ruler is there for life? vote them out….no, that doesnt work…hmm, what options are there for countries to change leadership peacefully? gosh, golly, I dont know..what do they do in the rest of the world, to change life long leaders? So confusing that I can’t think of the answer. I guess I could look at history and quote a few of those instances but I dont know, that is just an open invitation to get something they call a ‚ban‘ on sites like reddit…so I guess I will go back to not comprehending how things work.

      I am just so glad that the US is the closest neighbor to Iran and has to be the one to ‚help‘ the people there out.

    3. barrygateaux on

      This is like those YouTube videos that say „china economy collapsing!“ and „trump very ill“ every month but nothing happens.

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