Interview: Irans geistliche Herrscher werden die Proteste wahrscheinlich überleben, aber ein „allmählicher“ Zusammenbruch droht

SS:
Iran’s current unrest is increasingly resembling an uprising rather than conventional protests, with confirmed reports of military units using heavy weapons against civilians and armed clashes reported in multiple regions. Analyst Gregory Brew says the regime is likely to survive in the short term due to its repressive capacity, lack of organized opposition leadership, and elite cohesion — but warns the system itself is no longer sustainable and is slowly degrading. Meanwhile, the U.S. is openly debating intervention options, but analysts caution that military action could backfire by strengthening the regime’s narrative and accelerating repression. Regional states are actively urging Washington not to strike Iran, fearing retaliation, instability, and regional collapse.