Das iranische Regime könnte fallen – aber ein US-Angriff würde es stützen

[SS from essay by Jamsheed K. Choksy, Distinguished Professor of Iranian and Central Eurasian Studies in the Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies and Director of the Inner Asian and Uralic National Resource Center at Indiana University; and Carol E. B. Choksy, Senior Lecturer of Strategic Intelligence in the Luddy School of Informatics, Computing, and Engineering at Indiana University.]

Exactly when and how Iran’s current regime will fall is unclear. Khamenei, who is 86, could cling to power until he is incapacitated or dies. Midlevel Revolutionary Guards leaders, seeking to preserve their organization’s economic clout, may step in and impose military rule. Protesters could overwhelm local and national security forces, forcing pro-regime religious leaders and politicians to flee.

But irrespective of their feelings about their regime, Iranians in the country have no desire for U.S.-led regime change. They have seen it fail along their own borders in Iraq and Afghanistan. And in the first few days of 2026, they have witnessed the United States’ incursion into Venezuela with no plan for political succession or stabilization. They do not want the Trump administration to plunder their oil industry, either.

The incredible thing is that no matter what happens in the near future, things will never be the same for the IRGC and Khamenei, regardless of the outcome of recent events.

Sinwar really did singlehandedly cause the collapse of the Iranian regime and its proxy network.

This argument is fundamentally flawed because it rests on a misreading of the balance of power. The regime is steadily reasserting control, not losing it, largely due to its near-total monopoly on organized violence. The death toll is already estimated at around 12,000 by some sources. It has shut down or tightly controlled the internet and telecommunications, severing coordination and visibility. Arrested protesters are being systematically eliminated to deter further resistance.

At the same time, the regime is mobilizing its loyalist base for staged demonstrations to manufacture an illusion of popular support and reclaim the optics from the opposition.

An Israeli–American strike isn’t going to “prop up” the regime, it’s simply irrelevant to the internal dynamics you’re misdiagnosing.

In a perfect world, the Iranian people would achieve their own path to freedom and the world would embrace and support them. Unfortunately, I do not see this happening 🙁