Politische Revolution in den USA ist ein größtes globales Risiko für 2026: Denkfabrik der Eurasia Group | Macht & Politik

This is a 10 minute clip from David Cochrane’s Power and Politics. The section from 2:44 to 5:21 is the key part I want to reference.

Ian Bremmer, the guest, outlines an important point that I think a lot of people overlook. Trump is not a very good autocrat. He says,

> He lacks discipline. He is actually pretty incompetent when it comes to policy. He has a lot of political genius, and a lot of impulses, but he lacks impulse control.

>If trump really believed the principal enemy of the United States is the political opposition inside the US, you wouldn’t be fathing about in Venezuela and Greenland. You’d be focusing all of your effort and power into trying to destroy the Democrats… And Trump just doesn’t have the discipline for that. And he won’t listen to people around him with expertise because he’s always right and he’s incredibly confident, he wants to be in the news…he wants to be in the headlines… So I just don’t think he can get it done.

The thing about the above is that, if trump dies before the next election, he will be replaced by someone who is *not* impulsive and egotistical.

And that is the part that concerns me most.

The only way the US could potentially avoid a revolution or civil war, at this point, is for Trump to last to 2028 and then be voted out. Every other future results in a functional and competent autocracy in the US.